Libya with its plenty of hydrocarbon resources and the position in the Mediterranean dynamics, is one of the most important countries which have to be considered while analysing the regional politics. Unfortunately, due to continuing conflicts and the civil war, there is a worsening chaotic environment and an extending unrest in the country.
As being in the Syria, again nearly all the international actors have being involved (directly or indirectly) into the game in Libya. While some of them are directly supporting the LNA with finance, arms and other military related issues, some are staying in more diplomatic position and waiting for the winner of the civil war. Although UN accepted the Tripoli government as the legal side, except Turkey, none of the other members are putting an acceptable effort to control the extension of the Hafter forces and to defend the Tripoli government.
From the other side, it is known that, Hafter has a kinship with Sisi and has good relations with CIA. In addition to these, he also has good relations with Russia. From the beginning of the civil war in Libya, Russian ships and military units have started to use the Hafter controlled ports in Libya. In addition, we all know that, Hafter’s extension has mainly being supported directly by:
- Saudi finance,
- UEA finance and arms,
- Egypt’s military and arms,
- Russian paramilitary groups,
- (And may be Greek and France diplomacy).
Which mainly means: the tactical know-how is from Russia, arms and military support is from Egypt, finance is from UEA and Saudi Arabia.
By looking to the other side, Turkey has increased the military support to the GNA and Qatar helps in some portion of financing, however, there is no other actively involving UN or NATO partners putting the hands under the stone.
In such a complex and conflicted view, unexpectedly, the oil and gas production is continuing within the operatorships of different international companies. Although nearly all other sectors have being badly affected by the ongoing civil war in the country, due to the existence of these huge international companies, oil and gas production didn’t dropped so much. Qaddafi’s NOC government has being continuing acting and the same elite groups are directing the oil and gas markets within collaboration of the due international companies in Libya.
ENI, Total, BP, Statoil, OMV, OXY, Gazprom, Exxon, Repsol, Petrobras, Shell, Sonatrach, ONGC, Tatneft, India Oil are some of the important players continuing their activities in Libya.
By the way, the interesting side in this view is; budget of NOC, coming from the oil and gas sales, is divided between both governments. This means, both side can continue their military activities within the financial support coming from the oil sales of their country. With other words, Libyan oil is flowing, initially to feed the foreign investors and secondly to feed the conflicts!
While nearly all the international powers are involving the game with their energy companies, only Turkey is in the field, without any commercial expectations, trying to help the legal government in Libya.
In addition to these, Turkey’s legitimate act of signing an EEZ agreement with Libya was another important step that changed the balances in the Mediterranean. With this agreement Turkey not only protected its own offshore territories, and also protected the Libyan EEZ, which already was extorted by Greece. Turkey’s this act made the Greece a direct Hafter supporter. And in addition, Hafter took a position with beside of Greece, which (a betrayal situation) is letting his country’s EEZ rights to be extorted by the Greece!
In such a complicated situation, Russia and Turkey declared a ceasefire in Syria, but the Hafter side didn’t accept. Of course there may be some other international actors, which do not want a successful ceasefire for the region, without their integration, but the picture seems different in this current situation.
Hafter seems to continue the attacks to the GNA forces and GNA will continue to defend as possible. We are not sure about the ongoing complex dynamics of the region. But most feasible option is to find a more democratic and peaceful solution for the country.
Initial step has to be an international support on a strict ceasefire (which already has declared by Turkey and Russia) and a possible international reaction to the LNA forces if they continue their attacks to the Tripoli. Then the second step has to be a justified and democratic election in the whole country.
By the way, Hafter’s side is sure about to lose such an impartial and transparent election (with high ratios of attendance) in Libya. That’s why he is trying to invade the Tripoli before such an international intervention for peace!
As an earring to the international powers;
- They must be knowing that, the existing Tripoli tribes are the more educated, more elite and more comprehensible side of Libya.
- For them to easily and profitably continue their ongoing activities in Libya, they have to support the more legal and democratic side, which is the existing Tripoli government!
- After a transparent election, while the energy supplies are continuing, the country may easily turn to the old peaceful days.
- But again we initially have to apply a ceasefire and organize an acceptable election!
That’s why, 19th January Berlin Conference seems to be important! Western powers should help their ally Turkey’s attempts for peace!
Oğuzhan Akyener
Yazar
