1. Introduction
Oil prices are one of the most important items affecting the trends in the global economy. In
addition to global sights, being the price levels directly influencing the individual budgets and
preferences, sociological impact reaches much higher levels than the expectations. That’s why
to have an idea about the tendencies and directions of the prices becomes much more important
for the whole world (from individuals to the governments).
In order to make estimations for oil prices, initially we have to determine the roles and
tendencies of main variables in the price equations. There are many different elements that are
affecting the prices in the oil markets. To have a generalization, we can assume that;
– Supply – demand balances, including: new discoveries, stocks, number of drillings,
production levels, interruption decisions, long-term contracts, development declarations
and etc.
– Economic trends, like: global economic growth, GDP rates, substitution markets, us
dollar parity, alternative investment opportunities, purchasing power and etc.
– Risks, such as: perceptions, political tensions, terrorism, security issues, natural
disasters, unusual factors, biological or chemical treats and etc.
– Black oil capacity and their prices.
are the main four categorized drivers in oil price equations. While sometimes, some of these
elements have individual effects on the equation and sometimes they may also affect the other
variables and have a bigger impact on the generalized equation. Such as, today’s most popular
issue: Corona virus!
Without any doubt, corona virus is one of the most influencing drivers of oil prices, seen in the
history. Global oil demand decreased around %20 due to spread and uncontrollable risks of this
epidemic treat and the prices collapsed around %50.
In this study, after shortly describing the main items affecting the oil prices, corona sight and
the near future dynamics will tried to be analyzed.
Yazar
